Robin Yassin-Kassab / guardian.co.uk
Syrian children hold a vigil for 13-year-old Hamza al-Khatib, who activists say was tortured and killed by Syrian security forces. Photograph: Jamal Saidi/Reuters.
Last January Syria seemed to belong with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states as the least likely candidates for revolution. If President Bashar al-Assad had run in a real election, he may well have won. It's difficult to remember today that most Syrians did credit, if grudgingly, the regime with ensuring security and prosecuting a vaguely nationalist foreign policy. It's that desire for security, the overwhelming fear of Iraq-style chaos, that keeps a section of Syrian society loyal to the regime even now.
To start with, although they were inspired by Tunisia and Egypt, most protesters didn't aim for regime change. The first demonstration, in the commercial heart of Damascus, was a response to police brutality. That ended peacefully, but when Deraa protested over the arrest of schoolchildren the regime spilt blood. Outraged, communities all over the country took to the streets and met greater violence, swelling the crowds further. A vicious circle began. All the intelligence and nationalist pretensions peeled away from the government to reveal a dark and thuggish core.
Worse still, the president spoke of reforms, of ending the state of emergency and abolishing the hated state security courts. Even as he spoke the slaughter intensified. There was no surer way of destroying his credibility. The torrent of horror stories – children tortured to death, women shot, residential areas shelled – destroyed the regime's legitimacy.
The state's extraordinary stupidity suggests either panic or dissension in the inner circle, of which Bashar may only be the figurehead. Syrians debate which arrangement of Assads and Makhloufs (Bashar's mother's family) composes the actual power structure. In any case, Syria's leaders can count on support from the Republican Guard and the army's upper echelons. Yet lower- and middle-ranking defections will increase as the regime seeks to crush the provinces.
So what next? There is a roadmap to a happy ending. The grassrootslocal co-ordination committees call for the president's immediate resignation, and a joint civilian and military council to oversee a six-month transition to a pluralist democracy. "The new Syria will be a republic and a civil state that belongs to all Syrians," reads the LCC statement, "and not to an individual, family or party. It will not be inherited from fathers to sons. All Syrians will be equal in rights and duties without discrimination."
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