Wednesday, June 22, 2011

ARABIAN STRUGGLE FOR DEMOCRACY: Embattled Arab leaders decide it's better to fight than quit?

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MICHAEL SLACKMAN & MONA EL-NAGGAR / The Hindu.


The calculation appears to be based on the short-term results of the Arab Spring.


Arab leaders facing public revolt have increasingly concluded that it is better to shoot to kill, or at least to arrest and imprison, than to abdicate and flee.
That calculation appears to be based on the short-term results of the Arab Spring. Those who have left, namely Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, face the humiliation of a criminal investigation, a trial and possible imprisonment. Those who have opted to stick with the use of force, like the President of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, have retained power and appear to have leverage to negotiate immunity should they leave, regional analysts said.
“I don't think we're going to see rulers run away, like Mubarak,” said Mustafa Alani, an analyst with the Gulf Research Center in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates. “We passed this stage. They will not run or abdicate. They will take their chances.”
The wave of Arab uprisings, which began with popular protests that quickly ousted entrenched autocrats, has evolved into deadly confrontations in Libya, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere, with leaders willing to use sustained lethal force against a public convinced that persistence is the key to victory. It is a face-off, a test of wills, which has left thousands dead and opened a dark chapter in what was initially called the Arab Spring.
Each side has drawn lessons from the early days of the Arab unrest and the popular push for change. The leaders have settled on a formula that consists of three elements: limited concessions; a narrative that blames a third party, like a foreign nation or al-Qaeda; and security forces that are authorised to take any steps necessary, including shooting to kill, to get people off the streets. In Bahrain, officials have tried to recast the narrative altogether by asserting that the protesters started the violence, while the government has imposed what amounts to martial law on a majority of the population.
The next stage..............................................................................................................
‘Need to adapt quickly'..................................................................................................
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