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CHINMAYA R. GHAREKHAN / The hindu.
Egyptian protesters shout slogans as they call for democratic reforms and a speedy trial of former President Hosni Mubarak after Friday prayers in Cairo's Tahrir Square, Egypt, in this June 10, 2011 photo. The Arabic on banner reads:" The constitution, try the assassin, beware of the conspiracy, Egypt is in danger." - AP.
The prospects of a meaningful Arab Spring do not look bright as of now.
The expectations and hopes engendered by the events in Tunisia and Egypt at the beginning of the second decade of this century for an Arab Spring sprouting in the Arab world have turned out to be based on wishful thinking rather than on a careful assessment of the specific characteristics of each Arab country as well as of the vested interests of some external powers which wish to see change in a particular direction. Only Tunisia and Egypt have succeeded in overthrowing the previous regimes but even there, we have to wait to see what exactly will take their place. So far, the military in both countries remains all powerful; however, there is reason to hope that eventually, governments with the genuine participation of the peoples will emerge, at least in the short term. If the new governments in Tunis and Cairo, especially the latter given Egypt's crucial role in the Arab world, do not manage to tackle at least some of the problems such as corruption, high prices, and unemployment, the fate of democracy will hang in the balance.
In the rest of the Arab world, churning is on, but an extremely violent one, not at all ideal for preparing the soil for the seeds of democracy. Three countries — Libya, Syria and Yemen — seem to be competing with one another in terms of the blood of civilians that is being shed in the name of change and reform. In all three, extra-regional powers are significantly involved militarily as well as diplomatically, though the nature and extent of such interference vary. Economic, strategic and energy interests are at stake.
Libya has turned out to be the cry of despair for those who have committed their armed personnel, scarce financial resources and, more importantly, prestige in the outcome of the situation there. The conflict has gone on for longer than anyone expected and is costing the western nations more than they would really care to spend. Having pushed through Resolution 1973 with the help of the Arab League, they had calculated a quick and low-cost operation. Like in Afghanistan, Nato cannot afford to pull out without being able to claim victory. Two or three factors have frustrated their plans — Muammar Qadhafi's stubborn refusal to disappear from the scene, the absence of an identifiable and credible alternative leadership, and the continued loyalty of many African states to Mr. Qadhafi. Mr. Qadhafi is no doubt counting on the fatigue — financial and military — factor weakening public support for the Nato operation. Nato strikes killing civilians will further erode support and provide more propaganda ammunition to Mr. Qadhafi.
Under any Autocratic Rule, the military becomes the primary organ of administration.
The Autocrat could be dislodged, but to eradicate the military culture is difficult but not impossible.
And, when the military takes over power, from the outgoing Autocrat, it takes longer time to bring in true democracy, unless the people decide otherwise.
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