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Wed Jul 6, 2011 1:41pm GMT / http://af.reuters.com.
By Barry Malone
KAMPALA (Reuters) - When South Sudanese president Salva Kiir joins Africa's not so exclusive rebels-turned-leaders club Saturday, he will find his new state dependent on similar men for trade, investment -- and survival.
Oil-producing South Sudan is due to declare independence on July 9 -- a split approved in a referendum promised in a 2005 north-south peace deal to end two decades of conflict.
For former rebels in neighbouring countries such as Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the equation is simple.
A prosperous and peaceful South Sudan will mean billions of dollars in trade and investment for those two countries and also for east Africa's Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi.
A return to war, or significant violence, with the north, will be a disaster for the revenues of every country in the region and could mean an influx of refugees.
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