At the cost of being
branded as an alarmist or a mad-person with phobias or even as a lackey of some
vested interests, I wish to predict the scenario 10 Years from now, with FDI in
Retail Sector, based on the Historical Data.
According to the ‘World
Bank- Global Development Finance Report 2009’[1] Educational Qualifications of Organised Retail
Sector are – mostly computer savvy – 56% of Undergraduates, 36% of Graduates
& 8% of Post-Graduates.
If Walmart succeeds
the way it did in Mexico – capturing as much as 62%, in the first 15 Years
(since 1997) [2] – assuming
our Retail market stagnates at the current level of only Rs. 21,34,400/- Crores
of Sales with 12 Lakh businesses – owned by individuals of Families that employ
as many as 4 Crores of mostly Computer-illiterate, School Drop-outs – It would
displace, like it did in Mexico – around 7 Lakh businesses and would employ
just over 13 Lakh Undergraduates, Graduates & Post Graduates, with a Sales
of around Rs. 13,23,328/- Crores – after disemploying as many as 3,86,76,672.
01)
Who says FDI in Retail Sector, with the
likes of unscrupulous Walmart [3]
entering Indian Retail Sector would create jobs and not take away them?
Much larger studies
concluded that the Prices of Supermarkets in Latin America, Africa & Asia
have remained higher, by 20%-30%, than those of the open Markets.
02)
Why anybody should peddle canards of ‘the
Prices at Large-Format Retail Outlets’ would be Cheaper to the Consumer??
In USA, the birth-place
of “Walmart” and several other Large-Format Retail Outlets, their Government
has been subsidizing its Farmers to the tune of US$ 60/- Billions a Year!
03)
What is the logic or motivation [4] behind spreading rumours
about Farmers Getting better prices???
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