Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Latest Analysis of Exit Polls: Different Results, with Numerous Possibilities!

Brickbats, Bouquets & Backfeeds are welcome on prmadhura@yahoo.com


CNN/CSDS Manorama:         Asianet/CFore:            HeadlinesToday/ORG:
Kerala: 140 Seats:
LDF:               69-77                                       69-77                           45-52
UDF:               63-71                                       63-71                           85-92

[There could be hung assembly followed by the Coalition Politics.  With the above Neck-and-neck situation and the post poll horse trading, either Front could form government with tight margins.]

Tamilnadu: 234 Seats:

DMK+                        102-114                                   102-117                         15-130
AIDMK+                    120-132                                   117-132                       105-120

[Appears to be a clear sweep in favour of J. Jayalalitha, whose return she owes to 2G Spectrum Scam and the DMK’s rank nepotism and arm-twisting of the Congress in the UPA-1 & UPA-2]

West Bengal: 294 Seats:       

Left Front:         60-72                                     73-88                         65-70
Trinamul+        222-234                                   203-218                       210-220

[Clear rout of the left front can be attributed to the its long strangle-hold of the state since 1977 and the Singur Agitation, against the forceful land acquisition to set up Tata’s Nano Car Factory there along with the drastic reduction of the Agricultural land by 120,000 Acres and the number of the landless going up to 7.40 million, from 2.50 million appear to have done the L.F. in]

Assam: 126 Seats:

Congress+       64-72                                       45-50                           41-47
AGP+              54-62                                       16-21                           31-35
BJP+                 7-11                                                                            16-18
AUDF             11-17                                                                            13-15
[There could be hung assembly followed by the Coalition Politics.  With the above Neck-and-neck situation and the post poll horse trading, either Front could form government with tight margins.  While the partnership between AGP and AUDF is certain, the future government requires the support of  BJP, which may join this coalition government or support it from outside.  Either way the Congress+ has tough time to hope to form the government]



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